Black steel commodity futures soared again hit a new three-year high

The main contract, the iron ore rose nearly 6 percent, steel rose over 2%, the highest reported in 3687 yuan / ton, refresh since December 2013 high。  Since March, the commodity market has been in shock adjustment, industrial prices fell significantly。In the haze enveloped the entire market the occasion, black tie goods turn up, once again stand on the outlet market to do more enthusiasm renewed, there are institutions and even issued a "deja vu cattle return," sighs。  Industry experts generally believe that two days Black commodity prices and the national capacity to promote policies are closely related。  March 11, Minister of Industry and Miao Wei said that this year 50 million tons of steel bars to resolve excess production capacity target does not include the government work report submitted。  "This means that this year's steel production capacity to influence the intensity of the production capacity will be significantly larger than last year。"Shinkansen senior researcher, told reporters the case said Qiu Yuecheng。He analyzed that China's current production capacity of intermediate frequency furnace 1.300 000 000 -1.500 million tons, of which IF furnace production of construction steel production capacity of about 100 million tons, if this part of the total phase-out, coupled with previously disclosed 2016 Year – 2018 iron and steel production capacity to 1.Target 400 million tons, nearly 3 years to actual steel production capacity will reach 2.400 million tons, which supply the domestic market will bring significant influence。  For coal, the country is also increasing efforts to implement the national policy capacity。One insider yesterday told reporters that the Shanxi Coal Industry Department, Shanxi Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau issued an urgent notice on March 12, required to carry out an immediate strike over mine production capacity。  According to the notification, the cities of Shanxi Coal Industry Bureau, each of the Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau (station), countries have focused on Coal Group, Shanxi is China Industrial Group companies to quickly make arrangements immediately organized raids against the production of super powers。Among them, are not included in the production release mine must strictly enforce the 276 days of production requirements, namely, the production in accordance with no more than bulletin production capacity of 84% of the organization; coal and gas outburst, rockburst mine, hydrogeological type complex and above mine, then Notice must be produced in accordance with production capacity does not exceed 80% of the organization。  In addition to national capacity policy to push up market expectations, generally agreed that the black lines also rose with the recent steel inventories decline, the thread of iron ore is now close to large discount。  Qiu Yuecheng told reporters that the country's steel market inventories last week the third week of continuous decline, and the decline expanded significantly, especially single week rebar inventories fell by nearly 50 million tons since 2008, the largest weekly decline, demand shows the current domestic terminal at a high overall release。The Shagang during the weekend, the river in mid-March steel prices remained strong, showing very strong steel price will also form a direct positive trend in steel prices。Coupled with the current stock futures sharply relative premium, under favorable circumstances-intensive, repair premium of the stock market it is easy to expand。  March 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data also show that overall steel market supply and demand fundamentals for the better。The level of demand, 1–2 months, the country (excluding rural households) rose 8.9% annual growth rate over the previous year to speed 0.8 percentage points, higher than market expectations。Among them, infrastructure investment growth 27.3%, growth accelerated compared with last year 9.9 percentage points over last year to speed up 12.Three percentage points; real estate development and investment growth 8.9%, growth accelerated two percentage points higher than last year, to speed up 5 more than last year.9 points。  Supply level, the January-February China's crude steel and rolled steel production was 128.77 million tons and 166.55 million tons, an increase of respectively 5.8% and 4.1%。And average daily production of crude steel was 218.250 thousand tons and 282.290,000 tons, compared with December last year, average daily production increased by 0.65% and down 8.57%。  Qiu Yuecheng think, January-February average daily crude steel production rose a more modest, and still at a relatively low 2.2 million tons or less; the average daily production of steel chain fell sharply, intermediate frequency furnace enterprises have ceased production and environmental management of overweight and other factors, resulting in steel production dropped significantly。  However, from yesterday's look at futures disk, industry experts generally believe the market has already priced in positive data in advance。"14th spot market transactions generally weaker, further increases in short-term price pressure Pro。Investors are advised to carefully guard against the risk to be treated with caution ones。"Said Qiu Yuecheng。  CHICAGO statistics show, March 14, total precipitation commodity futures market funds for 1093.500 million yuan, 20.200 million, of which, 17.900000000 withdrawal of funds quietly black chain index (including coke, coke, iron ore, thread), a corresponding reduction in total 32 positions.78820000 hand。Has become the largest varieties of iron ore capital to flee, a total of 9.100 million。In the March 13, black chain index has attracted 31.300 million influx of funds, an increase of 27 positions.69240000 hand。  "Lighten up on the 14th of mainly long profit dual role of open and short stop。However, frequent access to funds of funds data shows a hesitant hand on the black line of goods, on the other hand also shows that black futures still favored funding target。"Lu permit futures Steel Pei Hongbin, chief analyst says。