"Petrochemical Hutch" elephant dance agency said that there can be this year's largest investment opportunity!

Since starting the year 2018, as of January 10 at noon close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed out the Nine consecutive positive, petrochemical planes contributed。  In early trading today China Petrochemical, China Petroleum sharply opened higher, after following the Sinopec, PetroChina also hit a two-year high, as of midday both rose more than 2 percent, in the petrochemical, oil has risen this year, 17 were.29%, 9.27%。  Gains in the first quarter will continue the recent two barrels of oil elephants dance, mainly due to the rapid rise in international oil prices。  EST Tuesday, international oil prices closed up, WTI crude oil futures rose to an intraday 63.US $ 01 / barrel, which is since December 2014 WTI crude oil prices topped $ 63。NYMEX crude oil this year, ICEWTI crude oil prices have risen 5 respectively.56%, 3.75%。  Zhuo Li Jiawei record information industry in an interview with the Securities Times reporter interviewed · Electronics, said the current round of international crude oil prices started in 2017 in June and July, the international oil that time was mainly influenced by OPEC to limit production。After that, because of the impact of geopolitics in the Middle East, the international crude oil prices in August 2017, appears to accelerate the rise in September。November 2017, OPEC will cut production agreement extended to the end of 2018, to further enhance the optimism, the market is generally optimistic about the effect of OPEC production cuts in 2018, which constitutes an integral factor in the current round of international oil prices。  "The reason why the rise in international oil prices, OPEC is mainly limited production since last year, gradually showing results, expected this year will be more apparent。"Director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University Lin Bo Qiang told the Securities Times reporter · Electronics。  It is reported that, EIA estimates 2017 global oil consumption grew by 1.4 million barrels / day。EIA forecast 2018 global oil consumption will increase by 1.7 million barrels / day in 2019 on this basis will increase by 1.7 million barrels / day。The main drivers of growth in non-OECD demand growth in India and China will contribute most to the growth in demand。Soochow Securities Wang Yang believes From mid-2017, the marginal impact of improved demand for oil might not be underestimated, in the context of inelastic supply, fluctuations affect the demand for crude oil prices is nonlinear。  However, Lin Bo slightly different view, he believes that "global oil demand is increasing every year, but the increase in demand is not the main factor affecting the international oil prices, crude oil supply is the most important。"For the industry to hold the new equilibrium in international oil prices have been raised to 70-80 US dollars / barrel point of view, Lin Bo said:" International oil prices have stood above $ 60, to $ 70 a go it is also possible。"Li Jiawei think, in the case of long and short game, international oil prices in the first quarter is still expected to continue to rise, but starting from the second quarter, largely depend on the magnitude of how much the United States to increase production。"In addition, from the first half of 2017 mid-term, OPEC's production cuts intensity is not very good。So also concerned about the part of OPEC production cuts in the process of whether or not 'lazy', which will be an uncertain factor affecting international oil prices。"Warned Li Jiawei。  Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations resurgence is worth noting that the recent rapid rise in the price of oil market has been heating up inflation expectations。  China, as a high dependence on foreign oil countries, the cost impact of oil price volatility for chemical, petrochemical and other industries significant, and therefore oil prices to the downstream transmission of the obvious effect。  This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released in December 2017 and the annual National (CPI) and producer price index () data。December 2017 China's CPI rose 0.3%, rose 1.8%; 2017 annual CPI rose 1.6% increase over the previous year dropped 0.4 percentage points。  Among them, energy prices for five consecutive months of increases, gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas prices rose 1 respectively.9%, 2.1 and 1%.6%, affecting the CPI rose about three total 0.05 points。Meanwhile, in December 2017 PPI rose 0.8%, an increase of 4.9%, annual PPI rose 6.3% since the end of 2012, the downward trend for five consecutive years。Among them, prices of production 8.3%, oil and gas extraction industry rose the most, up to 29%。  Although last year of steady inflation is ending, but the impact of rising oil prices have begun to appear。  Huatai Securities, the latest report said that if hub Brent oil prices rose to $ 75 this year, the central inflation may significantly up to + 3%, but they see little probability of rising oil prices, expected 2018 and 2019 was 62 and the average Brent $ 65 to $ 68 for a long time, this year's CPI central up to 2.5%, while inflation is likely to moderate in 2018 is the largest macro investment opportunities。  Specific to the investment opportunities, Huatai Securities believes that the oil will be the first choice of the three oil, on the grounds that the 2018 oil prices to further benefit from the recovery, while its share price should have access to support multiple catalysts, including further reduction of pipeline assets and use gas growth。Sinopec will also benefit from strong refining and chemical business profitability, but may start the IPO marketing segment since the second quarter of last year continued weakness, it is a big concern, oil services sector prospects are mixed in 2018, forecast onshore oil services company. the pace of recovery will be faster than offshore oil services company。  In addition, the petrochemical industry chain benefit sub-sectors including polyester / PTA sector, agricultural industrial chain, natural gas and coal as raw materials to produce homogeneous products, while petroleum product prices determined by the route sub-sectors, such as coal-to-olefins, PDH, etc.。In addition, the negative impact of inflation on colored feature will show a decreasing。  In the period of moderate inflation, consumer goods, investment opportunities are also worthy of attention。Recently liquor, beer, pork prices have corresponding stock price is also doing well。  Guotai Junan Securities believes that the short term, large consumer industries during the CPI up directly benefit from the price increase, the retail industry, supermarkets, meat corn agriculture, mass consumer goods, tourism, hotel food and beverage and other sub-sections benefit most。  Huatai Securities also said in the departure of moderate inflation, consumer staples tend to raise prices by lifting or expensive products accounted for a way to pass the rhythm of upstream costs rise, competition segments of the better products faster price increases , the greater the price increase, optimistic condiments, dairy products and beer price increases impetus。